Way back in November, I posed the question of whether the old rules of politics still apply. If you recall, and let’s be honest I can barely recall myself, Sean Parnell was leading the PA Senate primary polls despite serious allegations of spousal and child abuse. After Parnell lost his custody battle, though, he decided to drop out of the race. That left unresolved the … [Read more...] about Greitens Threatens to Upend Missouri Senate Race
Four months out, both party primaries in the Pennsylvania Senate race are wide open, and the election to replace retiring incumbent Pat Toomey is drawing eyeballs from across the nation. Republican Primary Dr. Mehmet Oz made a big splash when he jumped into the GOP pool last month, but there’s no indication yet that he’s lapping the competition. A few internal polls … [Read more...] about Candidates Scramble for Support in Wide-Open PA Senate Contest
One year in, Joe Biden’s Presidency seems to have reached an inflection point. His primary legislative program is on the ropes and COVID refuses to fade away. Accordingly, a promising first six months devolved into a tough back half of 2021. Now, FiveThirtyEight has Biden’s average approval rating at just 41.8%. Just how bad a number is that? Well, luckily, … [Read more...] about How Joe Biden’s Approval Rating Compares to His Predecessors At The One-Year Mark
The August Curse strikes again. Back in late July, I chronicled just how brutal the month of August typically is for recent Presidents. That trend is particularly gruesome for the first August of a new term. Well, it’s safe to say the streak continues. The fall of the Afghan government bedeviled Biden all throughout August, as the Taliban gained power while the U.S. … [Read more...] about President Biden’s Nightmare August and How He Might Bounce Back in the Fall
LAST UPDATED: November 24th, 2020 Introduction In this post, we’ll be presenting a preliminary analysis of the DecisionDeskHQ/Øptimus forecast for the 2020 General Election (following on a similar analysis for the 2018 midterms). It’s been a riveting year for elections and forecasts across the board, and we’re happy with the model’s performance. Here’s an outline of what … [Read more...] about 2020 DDHQ/Øptimus Forecast Model- How Well Did We Do?