Introduction In this post, we’ll be presenting a preliminary analysis of the DecisionDeskHQ/Øptimus forecast for the 2020 General Election (following on a similar analysis for the 2018 midterms). It’s been a riveting year for elections and forecasts across the board, and we’re happy with the model’s performance. Here’s an outline of what we’ll be covering - Model … [Read more...] about 2020 DDHQ/Øptimus Forecast Model- How Well Did We Do?
Polling
Election Postmortem
I had planned to write my election wrap-up in the days following the election. But because there were so many uncalled states and races, I did not have enough information to form any thoughts. Two weeks have now passed since the election, and it has given me lots of time to look through election results and digest the outcome of several key races. So, with that said, here are … [Read more...] about Election Postmortem
Once Reliably Republican, Georgia Emerges As Presidential Battleground
After years of trying and coming up short, can Democrats finally achieve their goal of turning Georgia blue? Georgia has been a reliably Republican state in presidential politics for decades now. Since 1984, only one Democratic presidential candidate has carried the Peach State: Bill Clinton in 1992. Since then, Democrats have never made a serious play for the state's … [Read more...] about Once Reliably Republican, Georgia Emerges As Presidential Battleground
Senate GOP Sees Rare Offensive Opportunity in Michigan
Senate Republicans are largely on the defensive this cycle. With several Republican incumbents trailing in both fundraising and in polling, a Senate race in the Great Lake State has presented them with a rare offensive opportunity. In Michigan, first-term Democratic Sen. Gary Peters is running for a second term. He was first elected in the 2014 midterm elections. A former … [Read more...] about Senate GOP Sees Rare Offensive Opportunity in Michigan
Is Split Ticket Voting Dead?
Recently, the polling firm Morning Consult released a slew of polls from Senate battlegrounds conducted in the period of September 11th to the 20th. It brought good news for Democrats but one of their biggest obstacles is that they need offensive targets in right leaning seats or even deep red states. Because of this, they will need to rely on split ticket voting, something … [Read more...] about Is Split Ticket Voting Dead?