DDHQ’s election research on applications of correlated simulations was recently published in the Harvard Data Science Review. We figured out that with some minor mathematical simplification, we could simulate elections faster than we were previously able to. Our strategy for faster simulations was centered around the fact that it is much easier, computationally, for a computer … [Read more...] about DDHQ’s 2022 Forecasting Model Was Published in the Harvard Data Science Review
LAST UPDATED: November 24th, 2020 Introduction In this post, we’ll be presenting a preliminary analysis of the DecisionDeskHQ/Øptimus forecast for the 2020 General Election (following on a similar analysis for the 2018 midterms). It’s been a riveting year for elections and forecasts across the board, and we’re happy with the model’s performance. Here’s an outline of what … [Read more...] about 2020 DDHQ/Øptimus Forecast Model- How Well Did We Do?
This week The Harvard Data Science Review released its special edition on Predicting the 2020 Elections. This peer-reviewed academic journal that covers the science of data looked at models from The Economist, Allan Lichtman as well as DDHQ's own 2020 Election Forecast. Liberty Vittert an editor of HDSR wrote - Øptimus, in collaboration with Decision Desk HQ, presents both … [Read more...] about DDHQ 2020 Election Forecast Featured in The Harvard Data Science Review
The Democratic Primary in NY-16 was one of the most watched congressional primaries this year. With changes in voting due to Covid-19 it was expected that it would be a week or more before we could call the race. Having made the call today we wanted to explain why we were able to do so. First, Bowman surged to an unexpectedly large lead, 11,802 votes, through early and … [Read more...] about Why Decision Desk HQ Called NY-16 Democratic Primary for Jamaal Bowman
Pennsylvania and Maryland held their primaries on June 2nd. As of the time of this writing, I am updating the latest tabulation- 14 days later- out of Philadelphia. I just finished running the tab on Maryland. I recently “joked” on Twitter that “Election Night is Dead, long live Election Week”, but I’m really not joking. If you stopped your vote count on June 2nd, you would … [Read more...] about Still Counting Votes Across Primary States. Consider This A Preview Of November.