Democratic insiders did not expect to lose the 2020 special election for California’s 25th district. Since 2016, the presidential topline, voter registration statistics, and the demographic makeup of CA-25’s voter pool increasingly favor the Democratic party. Republican Mike Garcia navigated his way to a special election victory, but he faces significant obstacles to winning a … [Read more...] about Competitive Seats: California 25
House
Republican Congressman Jim Hagedorn’s Battle To Keep MN-01 Is Getting More Difficult
Minnesota's First Congressional district was one of two in Minnesota that flipped from blue to red in 2018. GOP Congressman Jim Hagedorn has just come off two consecutive losses to Tim Walz, but with Walz running for Governor he saw an opening for the third time to really be the charm. While the district was particularly friendly to Donald Trump in 2016, Biden seems poised to … [Read more...] about Republican Congressman Jim Hagedorn’s Battle To Keep MN-01 Is Getting More Difficult
Inside the Competitive Race for Georgia’s 7th District
Located in diversifying Gwinnett County, Georgia's 7th Congressional District was not seen as a prime pickup opportunity for Democrats in the 2018 midterms. The Republican incumbent, Rob Woodall, won re-election with 60% of the vote two years earlier. But it ended up being the closest House race in 2018. Woodall is now retiring, and his 2018 Democratic opponent is now running … [Read more...] about Inside the Competitive Race for Georgia’s 7th District
Swing Seats: Arizona 6
Arizona is a frontline battleground state at every level of government. Prognosticators agree that Biden and Trump are in a close race for Arizona’s eleven electoral votes, albeit one with a consistent Biden lead in polling. We perceive Arizona’s Senate race as less competitive than the presidential topline, but this is because Democratic nominee Mark Kelly pushed the seat … [Read more...] about Swing Seats: Arizona 6
Swing Seats: Iowa 2
No major election rating site considered Iowa’s Second Congressional District, represented by five-term Democratic incumbent Dave Loebsack, a battleground in 2016. In contrast, Iowa’s First, the district directly north of IA-02 held by freshman Republican Rod Blum, was expected to be a close race. All election ratings sites viewed IA-01 as a Toss Up race, except Sabato’s … [Read more...] about Swing Seats: Iowa 2