Iowa was among the most closely watched states during the 2018 midterms, following Donald Trump’s 10-point victory in this once solidly Democratic state. Heavily white midwestern states like Iowa once composed the Democratic “Blue Wall,”… Read More
Looking Back on OK-5
Kendra Horn’s (D) stunning victory over incumbent Steve Russell (R) in Oklahoma’s R+10 5th district was one of the biggest 2018 midterm upsets. Russell won each of his previous elections by over 20 points, and… Read More
A DIME’s Worth of Moderation
The clash between ideological sides within each party is often focused on the direction of where to move the party, but some energy focuses on electability. Moderates claim that they appeal to the center and… Read More
Open Seat Watch: GA-07
Each election cycle brings a new round of Congressional retirements, and this time around is looking to be no different. Last week, we had an early announcement, from Rep. Rob Woodall (R) of Georgia’s 7th District. Initially… Read More
Forty-five House Seats Decided by Five Points or Less
Wave elections are remembered for the sheer number of seats flipped and of course the upsets, but the volume of close contests in them can be useful when looking ahead to the next cycle. Forty-five… Read More
A Look at Money in the Midterms
With $1.75 billion spent in the House this cycle, I looked at some of the most extreme stats that popped out at me, from high spenders to the most efficient campaigns. First up is wine… Read More
What was the Democratic ceiling in the House?
When we introduced the 2018 Election Forecasting Simulator yesterday, we included several different scenarios to play around with. Today we’re taking a look at one in particular, which maximizes the expected number of Democratic victories… Read More
2018 Midterm Forecasting model analysis- How well did we do?
UPDATE: The post below has been updated to reflect the Democratic flip of CA-21 and the results of the Mississippi special election. It is now up-to-date as of November 29th. Introduction The following document presents… Read More
RACE CALL RETRACTION IN CA-21
Decision Desk HQ is retracting the call we made in the CA-21 race. On election night we called the race for incumbent Congressman David Valadao over Democratic challenger T.J. Cox. Valadao finished election night with… Read More
Uncalled Races Update
As of this writing, DDHQ has not called four House contests: CALIFORNIA-39 GEORGIA-07 TEXAS-23 UTAH-04 California’s 39th remains uncalled due to the outstanding vote count. Republican Young Kim sported a lead on election night, but… Read More