Updates to Part 1: We at DDHQ yesterday moved TX-06 to Likely R, and FiveThirtyEight moved TX-24 to Toss-Up. The NRCC announced they would spend an additional 772K on ads in TX-24. Robert "Beto" O’Rourke's 2018 political coalition shattered the Texas Republican Gerrymander. Districts designed to safely reelect incumbent Republicans became marginal races. … [Read more...] about Competitive Congressional Races in the Lone Star State (2/3)
House
The Minnesota GOP Has a Problem In The West Metro: MN-03 and SD-44
The Minnesota Republican party has developed a suburban problem where they were previously at least highly competitive. Those suburban issues are most prevalent in the west metro which contains some of the more affluent and college educated communities in the Twin Cities. In 2018, Democrats flipped the Third Congressional district. Republican Congressman Erik Paulsen had held … [Read more...] about The Minnesota GOP Has a Problem In The West Metro: MN-03 and SD-44
Competitive Congressional Races in the Lone Star State (1/3)
Everything is bigger in Texas, including the list of battleground Congressional districts. Both parties are contesting seats in the Lone Star state, with varying degrees of success. Texas’s congressional map was not designed to be this competitive – only one seat of 36 was marginal in 2012. The Republican-controlled State Legislature carved up Democratic communities and paired … [Read more...] about Competitive Congressional Races in the Lone Star State (1/3)
The 2018 Republican Flip That Probably Isn’t Coming Back To The Democrats
In 2018, the Republican party picked up two Congressional districts despite the "blue wave." Both of those pickups came from open seats in Minnesota. Last week I discussed the tightening MN-01 race, and this week attention turns to the less competitive MN-08. Unlike the first district, the 8th features a fairly generic Republican incumbent in Pete Stauber, who (aside from also … [Read more...] about The 2018 Republican Flip That Probably Isn’t Coming Back To The Democrats
Competitive Seats: California 25
Democratic insiders did not expect to lose the 2020 special election for California’s 25th district. Since 2016, the presidential topline, voter registration statistics, and the demographic makeup of CA-25’s voter pool increasingly favor the Democratic party. Republican Mike Garcia navigated his way to a special election victory, but he faces significant obstacles to winning a … [Read more...] about Competitive Seats: California 25