Wave elections are remembered for the sheer number of seats flipped and of course the upsets, but the volume of close contests in them can be useful when looking ahead to the next cycle. Forty-five… Read More
A Look at Money in the Midterms
With $1.75 billion spent in the House this cycle, I looked at some of the most extreme stats that popped out at me, from high spenders to the most efficient campaigns. First up is wine… Read More
What was the Democratic ceiling in the House?
When we introduced the 2018 Election Forecasting Simulator yesterday, we included several different scenarios to play around with. Today we’re taking a look at one in particular, which maximizes the expected number of Democratic victories… Read More
2018 Midterm Forecasting model analysis- How well did we do?
UPDATE: The post below has been updated to reflect the Democratic flip of CA-21 and the results of the Mississippi special election. It is now up-to-date as of November 29th. Introduction The following document presents… Read More
RACE CALL RETRACTION IN CA-21
Decision Desk HQ is retracting the call we made in the CA-21 race. On election night we called the race for incumbent Congressman David Valadao over Democratic challenger T.J. Cox. Valadao finished election night with… Read More
Uncalled Races Update
As of this writing, DDHQ has not called four House contests: CALIFORNIA-39 GEORGIA-07 TEXAS-23 UTAH-04 California’s 39th remains uncalled due to the outstanding vote count. Republican Young Kim sported a lead on election night, but… Read More
Øptimus Election Modeling Preliminary Recap
Now that Election Day is “over” (minus California and a few close races), we have a preliminary look at how our legislative model has performed. The following analysis only includes races that have been called,… Read More
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update November 5, 2018
On the eve of Election Day, there is a high likelihood of split chamber control of Congress once the dust settles. In the past week, the national environment shifted from D+7.9 to D+7.1 while presidential… Read More
Poll Release: AZ01 and OH07
As Election Day approaches, we took and in-depth look at our Congressional model to see if there were any districts in need of polling. We just went over 500 House polls released in 2018, and… Read More
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update November 2, 2018
As it was at the beginning of the week, the model is stable in the House and moved slightly towards Republicans in the Senate since Monday. The national environment shifted from D+7.9 compared to D+7…. Read More