Arizona’s 2nd has suffered an acute case of whiplash, going from one of the most competitive seats to a secured Republican victory in 2016, and now looking to zoom back to a comfortable Democratic win… Read More
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 15, 2018
With just 3 weeks left until Election Day, our model is fairly confident in the outcomes of both chambers. While there is still time for change, and while great odds are not the same as… Read More
State Spotlight: Minnesota, From 2012 to Today, Pt. 2
Today we’ll continue our look at Minnesota’s competitive House elections. We will focus now on the districts where Republicans are in serious danger, MN-2 and MN-3. Minnesota’s 2nd congressional district – containing the cities of… Read More
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 8, 2018
With less than 30 days left until Election Day, our model took a turn towards Republicans this week, though Democrats are still strong favorites to retake the House of Representatives. The generic ballot national environment shifted… Read More
State Spotlight: Minnesota, From 2012 to Today, Pt. 1
Minnesota is one of the key states that will decide control of the House in this year’s midterm election. And Minnesota is unique in at least one regard: this is probably the only state where… Read More
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 1, 2018
With 36 days remaining, our model continues to track towards Democrats in the House while holding steady for Republicans in the Senate. The generic ballot national environment shifted down to D+8 this week but was… Read More
State Spotlight: Michigan, From 2016 to Today
Donald Trump’s narrow victory in Michigan was one of election night 2016’s bigger surprises. Despite its perennial battleground status, Michigan had not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since George H. W. Bush in 1988…. Read More
Voter Registration Changes in Pennsylvania and the 2018 midterms
Those long-time readers of the Desk know of my special affinity (some would call it an obsession) with the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Throughout 2015 and 2016, I tracked voter registration changes as it finally ceased… Read More
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update September 24, 2018
With less than 50 days until Election Day, our model moves slightly towards Republicans for both chambers this week in the aggregate. The generic ballot national environment receded down to D+8.7 from last week’s high of… Read More
House District Spotlight: Illinois-12
Illinois’ 12th congressional district – represented by Mike Bost (R) since his defeat of William Enyart (D) in 2014 – is another heavily white midwestern district that swung hard towards Donald Trump in 2016. Prior… Read More