On the eve of Election Day, there is a high likelihood of split chamber control of Congress once the dust settles. In the past week, the national environment shifted from D+7.9 to D+7.1 while presidential… Read More
Poll Release: AZ01 and OH07
As Election Day approaches, we took and in-depth look at our Congressional model to see if there were any districts in need of polling. We just went over 500 House polls released in 2018, and… Read More
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update November 2, 2018
As it was at the beginning of the week, the model is stable in the House and moved slightly towards Republicans in the Senate since Monday. The national environment shifted from D+7.9 compared to D+7…. Read More
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 29, 2018
For the second straight week, the model is stable in the House and moves slightly towards Republicans in the Senate. The national environment is also stable, sitting at D+7.9 compared to D+7.8 last week. With… Read More
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 22, 2018
After the big movement in the model at the end of last week due to the record-breaking fundraising quarter by Democrats, the model settles down this week. The national environment continues to creep back up… Read More
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 18, 2018
As predicted, Q3 FEC reports shook up the race a bit, with House Democrats now overwhelming favorites to take a majority and Senate Democrats somewhat improving their standing (though Republicans are still strong favorites). The… Read More
The Hot Seat: Arizona’s 2nd
Arizona’s 2nd has suffered an acute case of whiplash, going from one of the most competitive seats to a secured Republican victory in 2016, and now looking to zoom back to a comfortable Democratic win… Read More
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 15, 2018
With just 3 weeks left until Election Day, our model is fairly confident in the outcomes of both chambers. While there is still time for change, and while great odds are not the same as… Read More
State Spotlight: Minnesota, From 2012 to Today, Pt. 2
Today we’ll continue our look at Minnesota’s competitive House elections. We will focus now on the districts where Republicans are in serious danger, MN-2 and MN-3. Minnesota’s 2nd congressional district – containing the cities of… Read More
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 8, 2018
With less than 30 days left until Election Day, our model took a turn towards Republicans this week, though Democrats are still strong favorites to retake the House of Representatives. The generic ballot national environment shifted… Read More