LAST UPDATED: November 24th, 2020 Introduction In this post, we’ll be presenting a preliminary analysis of the DecisionDeskHQ/Øptimus forecast for the 2020 General Election (following on a similar analysis for the 2018 midterms). It’s been a riveting year for elections and forecasts across the board, and we’re happy with the model’s performance. Here’s an outline of what … [Read more...] about 2020 DDHQ/Øptimus Forecast Model- How Well Did We Do?
I had planned to write my election wrap-up in the days following the election. But because there were so many uncalled states and races, I did not have enough information to form any thoughts. Two weeks have now passed since the election, and it has given me lots of time to look through election results and digest the outcome of several key races. So, with that said, here are … [Read more...] about Election Postmortem
The 2020 Congressional Election did not go the way Democrats hoped. National Democrats expected to gain seats, but results so far are a net loss. The results vindicated the National Republican Congressional Committee who expected to narrow the Democratic majority by picking off vulnerable Congressional Democrats and holding the line in Republican seats across the country. Over … [Read more...] about Competitive Congressional Races: What Happened?
Two months ago, we began a series examining competitive Congressional districts and why exactly they are competitive. The political environment since we wrote these articles. Over 90 million voters have voted early and Election Day is a few days away. Some fundamentals have shifted with time, but the districts remain competitive. Indiana’s 5th District – Originally … [Read more...] about Revisiting Our Profiled Swing Seats
A competitive race begets more competitive races. That is what happened in 2018 when Robert "Beto" O’Rourke lost the 2018 Senate race to Ted Cruz by under 3%. Democrats flipped two Congressional districts, two State Senate districts, 12 State Representative districts, and gave incumbent Republicans a scare in numerous others. Biden is presently polling competitively with Trump … [Read more...] about Competitive Congressional Races in the Lone Star State (3/3)