One of the local contests we have focused on here at DDHQ is the Mayoral election in my own Baltimore backyard. Incumbent Mayor Jack Young has already conceded the Democratic primary, failing to crack even the top three. Mary Miller is a very distant third and has been mathematically eliminated. That leaves just two candidates, former Mayor Sheila Dixon, who ran and narrowly … [Read more...] about Maryland’s First All Mail-In Election Goes To Overtime In Baltimore Mayoral Primary
Analysis
Donald Trump Should Forget Texas
Politics Twitter was shocked last week to see a Quinnipiac poll of Texas, at State Trump won 9 points in 2016, as a tossup, with a one point Trump lead. While many people couldn’t believe the result, it’s right in line with what the LeanTossup model has in Texas, and confirms our broader theory of the election: Biden has drawn back some amount of white non-College voters back … [Read more...] about Donald Trump Should Forget Texas
Joe Biden’s Increasing Support From Hispanic Voters
After much talk of Joe Biden's campaign being unable to get much traction with Hispanic voters - and consequently polls showing him doing somewhere between mildly and much worse with Hispanics than Hillary Clinton did - Biden seems to have figured out his Hispanic problems, and he's done so in a big way. Per three recent National polls - conducted by Optimus, YouGov, and the … [Read more...] about Joe Biden’s Increasing Support From Hispanic Voters
Covering And Understanding Elections In The World Of Covid 19
The Covid-19 pandemic has changed how we live our daily lives in so many ways over the last two months. As we’ve seen across the country these changes, great and small, have reached the world of politics and elections. Recently an ad-hoc committee of scholars and researchers led by professor Rick Hasen of the University of California at Irvine, released a report addressing … [Read more...] about Covering And Understanding Elections In The World Of Covid 19
What International Elections Tell Us About A Poll Tightening In The US This Fall
Probably the biggest question in American politics right now is whether, and how much, the polls may tighten as we get closer to voting day on November 3rd. According to the LeanTossup models, the GOP are substantial underdogs in all three of the Presidency, Senate, and House, but that is based on where the polls are now. If the polls tighten, the Model odds will do the same. … [Read more...] about What International Elections Tell Us About A Poll Tightening In The US This Fall