Saturday saw the first results come in of the Democratic Caucuses come in. While we don’t yet have complete figures, or full delegate allocations, we do have some things we learned from the results tonight. Sanders Didn’t Underperform Having final numbers would be good here, if only so we could truly estimate the size of the win versus the polls, but what is … [Read more...] about Nevada Caucuses: What We Learned
On Tuesday, five national Democratic Primary polls were released, all showing one thing - a big Bernie Sanders lead. Despite the fact Sanders is only on 29% per the LeanTossup National Average, he is in the driver’s seat of the primary, forecast for 1816 delegates per the LeanTossup model. And while the model still believes no candidate getting a majority is the likeliest … [Read more...] about Sanders Is Surging; Is It Over?
When I started building the LeanTossup Democratic Primary model for our site in the spring of 2019, I decided to add a pie chart to show the odds that no candidate would win a majority of pledged delegates (a Contested Convention). I asked twitter to vote in a poll on their preferred labels for the “Odds of a Contested Convention” graph; either “Yes/No” or “Everything is … [Read more...] about Chaos Is The Current Frontrunner In The Democratic Primary And It’s Not Looking To Lose Its Lead Anytime Soon
Despite the inconclusive final results of the Iowa Caucus, the train keeps rolling on, with Tuesday’s New Hampshire Primary. Bernie Sanders is the clear favorite, leading every poll released this week by at least 4%, with Monmouth showing a 24%-20% race between Sanders and Pete Buttigieg, and Emerson and Suffolk’s most recent tracking poll data showing 10%, and 6%, leads … [Read more...] about Good Bye Iowa, Hello New Hampshire: Sanders Leading, Pete Surging, Biden Fading
The second after Big Ben struck 10 pm in the UK last Thursday night, the blame game began in the Labour party. Why had the party, that had won three straight landslides with Tony Blair just 20 years ago, lost four straight elections? How had, not just the general population of the UK, but previously Safe Labour seats elected a Boris Johnson lead Tory government after 9 years of … [Read more...] about Both Jeremy Corbyn And Brexit Hurt The Labour Party In 2019 But Brexit Seems To Have Hurt It More