It’s perhaps the quintessential question of the 2020 presidential election: What path should the Biden campaign take to win the 270 electoral votes needed to regain the White House? This debate has generally revolved around two options: the Rust Belt path and the Sun Belt path. The Rust Belt route consists of states that Democrats usually win, but which saw a sharp … [Read more...] about Biden Bets on A Rust Belt Path to the White House
Analysis
Six Notable Takeaways From The Decision Desk HQ/0ptimus Model
With both party conventions now in the books, it is a good time to look at where we are in terms of the election, and what is likely to happen. Luckily, Decision Desk HQ and 0ptimus have run back the successful 2018 House and Senate models, with a new Presidential one as well, and therefore there are many interesting takeaways from the modelling. This is not an exhaustive list, … [Read more...] about Six Notable Takeaways From The Decision Desk HQ/0ptimus Model
Trump’s Approval Ratings Shows Why Biden Is A Substantial Favorite To Win In November
With the great availability of horse race numbers at the Presidential level, and the proliferation of state and district polls of varying quality and partisan lean to shift through, one of the more basic polling measures - Presidential approval - is frequently ignored. In spite of that fact, it may actually be the simplest way to explain why Joe Biden is the favorite to win the … [Read more...] about Trump’s Approval Ratings Shows Why Biden Is A Substantial Favorite To Win In November
The Polls May Be Tightening A Bit, But Trump Is Still In Major Trouble
The great talking point of US politics right now is whether the polls are tightening or not, and whether the consequence of a tightening - a second Trump term - is more likely than it was a week ago or a month ago. The thing is, the answer to those two questions are counterintuitive - there seems to be some tightening, but it doesn't make Trump substantially more likely to win … [Read more...] about The Polls May Be Tightening A Bit, But Trump Is Still In Major Trouble
Dems Hope to Bounce Back, and Hold On, In Biden’s Birthplace
You may not be aware of this, but despite the innumerable profiles and memes about voters in western Pennsylvania, that region was not the key to Donald Trump’s upset victory in the Keystone State. Actually it was the Northeast which ended up being the most pivotal portion of the commonwealth. For example, look at Lackawanna and Luzerne Counties, home to Scranton and … [Read more...] about Dems Hope to Bounce Back, and Hold On, In Biden’s Birthplace