President Donald Trump carried Michigan by less than 12,000 votes in 2016, and did so mainly on a massive shift among whites without a college degree. His performance in suburban areas, particularly those populated mostly by whites with a college degree, dipped notably from Mitt Romney's, and this held true throughout the state. He also benefited from a drop in participation … [Read more...] about Why Donald Trump Is Heading To Western Michigan Next Week (It’s Not About His Base)
Analysis
A Critical State Senate Election Special is Coming in Pennsylvania
Today's guest post is by Jeff Ditzler, longtime DDHQ election data gatherer. He continues an earlier exploration of Pennsylvania contests with a review of the upcoming special election in SD-37. In a previous piece, I detailed the bumper crop of special elections occurring in Pennsylvania this spring: one for Congress, three for the state Senate, and at least two for the … [Read more...] about A Critical State Senate Election Special is Coming in Pennsylvania
Election Night Recap for 3/19/2019
Between federal and major statewide contests, the various contributors to DDHQ keep their eyes on local elections and specials. Here's a rundown of the major ones from last night. Jacksonville- Municipal Elections The top of the ticket wasn't even contested this go-around, in stark contrast to the 2015 race which saw Republican Lenny Curry narrowly defeat … [Read more...] about Election Night Recap for 3/19/2019
Noah Rudnick’s Hot Seat: NY-03
New York’s Third Congressional District is a surprisingly competitive seat: Democratic Presidential candidates consistently win it by small margins and down ballot contests can get close even with token opposition. Two-term incumbent Tom Suozzi faces broadside attacks and scandals from home, granting an opening for either a Republican or progressive insurgent to hammer … [Read more...] about Noah Rudnick’s Hot Seat: NY-03
Michigan Senate 2018: Stabenow Wins a 4th Term, But It’s Close(-ish)
Continuing our look at Michigan, while the Democrats won the open Gubernatorial race there by a comfortable 10% last year, the Senatorial result was something better for Republicans. Senator Debbie Stabenow (D) was initially elected to the chamber in 2000, after representing a swingy Lansing-area seat in the House. She was reelected by increasingly large margins in 2006 and … [Read more...] about Michigan Senate 2018: Stabenow Wins a 4th Term, But It’s Close(-ish)