The great talking point of US politics right now is whether the polls are tightening or not, and whether the consequence of a tightening - a second Trump term - is more likely than it was a week ago or a month ago. The thing is, the answer to those two questions are counterintuitive - there seems to be some tightening, but it doesn't make Trump substantially more likely to win … [Read more...] about The Polls May Be Tightening A Bit, But Trump Is Still In Major Trouble
In his memoir, Deputy National Security Advisor Ben Rhodes wrote about being with Barack Obama when the Clinton campaign requested that the President visit Michigan on the day before the 2016 election. “Michigan?” President Obama responded, “That’s not good.” Obama was right to be concerned. After all, Michigan’s been the harbinger of Democratic presidential campaigns for … [Read more...] about Michigan Is the Canary in the Coalmine for Democrats (and Now Republicans Too)—If you want to know how a presidential campaign is going, just look at Michigan
Ah, Blue Texas, the dream of so many, you may be here. Sunday saw two polls - a University of Texas at Tyler poll showing Biden +5 and a CBS/YouGov showing Trump +1 - both showing Democrats competitive in the Lone Star State, and reignited the 18 month long debate about whether the Biden campaign should just throw everything at the core map or expand into Texas, Georgia, Iowa, … [Read more...] about Turning Texas Blue, It’s Not Just About Biden, The Senate, Or Even The House. State Legislatures Are Important Too.
Georgia's primary election this month made national headlines – for all the wrong reasons. From voting equipment malfunctions, to long lines at polling places and some voters not receiving their absentee ballots, a lot of Georgia voters were frustrated with the way the primary was administered. We all want to know what went wrong in Georgia's primary. Mark Niesse, who covers … [Read more...] about Dissecting Georgia’s Chaotic Primary and What It Could Mean For November
Donald Trump has had a rough past couple of weeks, after months of the COVID-19 pandemic. To put it mildly, Trump is in some big trouble. In my Presidential Forecast, Trump's chance of winning has dropped by 6% down to 28.3%. This is by no terms out of it, roughly the odds the dealer busts in a game of blackjack. His chances have been hit hard due his slipping position in swing … [Read more...] about The Trump Slump Continues