As we enter the post-Labor Day stretch of the presidential campaign, Joe Biden is currently ahead in all six swing states. There is one state that looms just a bit larger than the others, though, because for Donald Trump everything depends on Florida, a state the DDHQ/0ptimus forecast model moved from LEAN D to TOSS UP this week. Trump’s Special Connection With … [Read more...] about Trump’s Reelection Path Begins, And May End, In Florida
2020 President
Biden Bets on A Rust Belt Path to the White House
It’s perhaps the quintessential question of the 2020 presidential election: What path should the Biden campaign take to win the 270 electoral votes needed to regain the White House? This debate has generally revolved around two options: the Rust Belt path and the Sun Belt path. The Rust Belt route consists of states that Democrats usually win, but which saw a sharp … [Read more...] about Biden Bets on A Rust Belt Path to the White House
Donald Trump and His Conventions: From Spectator to Star of the Show
Turns out you can learn quite a lot about someone by charting their history with political conventions. Last week I reviewed Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s run of DNC speeches. This week, I’m looking at Donald Trump’s RNC experiences. 1980 Ironically enough, Trump’s first convention wasn’t a Republican one. In 1980, Jimmy Carter headed north to Madison Square Garden … [Read more...] about Donald Trump and His Conventions: From Spectator to Star of the Show
What Will Joe Say?: Biden’s Past DNC Speeches and What They Can Tell Us About His Acceptance Address
As Joe Biden approaches his acceptance address for the 2020 Democratic National Convention he faces a variety of difficulties. Of course there’s the normal issues, like needing to touch on dozens of policies and reach out to countless constituencies. Now, however, the nominee must also deal with the reality that his speech will have to be delivered to an empty room with no … [Read more...] about What Will Joe Say?: Biden’s Past DNC Speeches and What They Can Tell Us About His Acceptance Address
Trump’s Approval Ratings Shows Why Biden Is A Substantial Favorite To Win In November
With the great availability of horse race numbers at the Presidential level, and the proliferation of state and district polls of varying quality and partisan lean to shift through, one of the more basic polling measures - Presidential approval - is frequently ignored. In spite of that fact, it may actually be the simplest way to explain why Joe Biden is the favorite to win the … [Read more...] about Trump’s Approval Ratings Shows Why Biden Is A Substantial Favorite To Win In November