As Joe Biden approaches his acceptance address for the 2020 Democratic National Convention he faces a variety of difficulties. Of course there’s the normal issues, like needing to touch on dozens of policies and reach out to countless constituencies. Now, however, the nominee must also deal with the reality that his speech will have to be delivered to an empty room with no … [Read more...] about What Will Joe Say?: Biden’s Past DNC Speeches and What They Can Tell Us About His Acceptance Address
With the great availability of horse race numbers at the Presidential level, and the proliferation of state and district polls of varying quality and partisan lean to shift through, one of the more basic polling measures - Presidential approval - is frequently ignored. In spite of that fact, it may actually be the simplest way to explain why Joe Biden is the favorite to win the … [Read more...] about Trump’s Approval Ratings Shows Why Biden Is A Substantial Favorite To Win In November
The great talking point of US politics right now is whether the polls are tightening or not, and whether the consequence of a tightening - a second Trump term - is more likely than it was a week ago or a month ago. The thing is, the answer to those two questions are counterintuitive - there seems to be some tightening, but it doesn't make Trump substantially more likely to win … [Read more...] about The Polls May Be Tightening A Bit, But Trump Is Still In Major Trouble
In his memoir, Deputy National Security Advisor Ben Rhodes wrote about being with Barack Obama when the Clinton campaign requested that the President visit Michigan on the day before the 2016 election. “Michigan?” President Obama responded, “That’s not good.” Obama was right to be concerned. After all, Michigan’s been the harbinger of Democratic presidential campaigns for … [Read more...] about Michigan Is the Canary in the Coalmine for Democrats (and Now Republicans Too)—If you want to know how a presidential campaign is going, just look at Michigan
Ah, Blue Texas, the dream of so many, you may be here. Sunday saw two polls - a University of Texas at Tyler poll showing Biden +5 and a CBS/YouGov showing Trump +1 - both showing Democrats competitive in the Lone Star State, and reignited the 18 month long debate about whether the Biden campaign should just throw everything at the core map or expand into Texas, Georgia, Iowa, … [Read more...] about Turning Texas Blue, It’s Not Just About Biden, The Senate, Or Even The House. State Legislatures Are Important Too.