In a field as incredibly crowded as the one Democrats must pick from in less than a year, coming in third or fourth in Iowa, with the money that is surely going to be raised over the next few months, doesn't seem to carry as much weight as it may have in previous elections. A candidate who proves a dud in Iowa may do well in New Hampshire, or have a different strategy and kick … [Read more...] about A Crowded Field Meets a Front Loaded Primary
2020 President
Why Donald Trump Is Heading To Western Michigan Next Week (It’s Not About His Base)
President Donald Trump carried Michigan by less than 12,000 votes in 2016, and did so mainly on a massive shift among whites without a college degree. His performance in suburban areas, particularly those populated mostly by whites with a college degree, dipped notably from Mitt Romney's, and this held true throughout the state. He also benefited from a drop in participation … [Read more...] about Why Donald Trump Is Heading To Western Michigan Next Week (It’s Not About His Base)
Net Favorabilty Changes in Presidential Election Cycles
I saw a conversation back and forth earlier this morning on the negative favorability ratings for nearly every Democratic nominee. A tweet by CNN contributor Harry Enten caught my eye: YouGov's latest poll: Dems lead the generic prez ballot by 49% to 40% over Trump, but none of the candidates (save Biden) have a positive net favorable score. (Schultz has by far the worst.) … [Read more...] about Net Favorabilty Changes in Presidential Election Cycles
What The 2018 Texas Senate Results May Tell Us About Beto O’Rourke’s Chances In 2020
Today, the already crowded field for the 2020 Democratic nomination grew as ex-Rep. Beto O'Rourke announced his candidacy. With O'Rourke entering the race, it may be worth looking at how he fared last year. Elected to Congress originally in 2012, O'Rourke represented the strongly Democratic TX-16 (El Paso). After two easy re-elections, he ran statewide for Senate against … [Read more...] about What The 2018 Texas Senate Results May Tell Us About Beto O’Rourke’s Chances In 2020