Ah, Blue Texas, the dream of so many, you may be here. Sunday saw two polls - a University of Texas at Tyler poll showing Biden +5 and a CBS/YouGov showing Trump +1 - both showing Democrats competitive in the Lone Star State, and reignited the 18 month long debate about whether the Biden campaign should just throw everything at the core map or expand into Texas, Georgia, Iowa, … [Read more...] about Turning Texas Blue, It’s Not Just About Biden, The Senate, Or Even The House. State Legislatures Are Important Too.
2020 President
Dissecting Georgia’s Chaotic Primary and What It Could Mean For November
Georgia's primary election this month made national headlines – for all the wrong reasons. From voting equipment malfunctions, to long lines at polling places and some voters not receiving their absentee ballots, a lot of Georgia voters were frustrated with the way the primary was administered. We all want to know what went wrong in Georgia's primary. Mark Niesse, who covers … [Read more...] about Dissecting Georgia’s Chaotic Primary and What It Could Mean For November
The Trump Slump Continues
Donald Trump has had a rough past couple of weeks, after months of the COVID-19 pandemic. To put it mildly, Trump is in some big trouble. In my Presidential Forecast, Trump's chance of winning has dropped by 6% down to 28.3%. This is by no terms out of it, roughly the odds the dealer busts in a game of blackjack. His chances have been hit hard due his slipping position in swing … [Read more...] about The Trump Slump Continues
Post Protest Polling Favors Joe Biden
Here are the results of the high quality, live caller national polls, that have been released in the two weeks since news of the death of George Floyd at the hands of police in Minneapolis, MN and the nationwide protests against racism and police brutality: Joe Biden +14% (CNN/SSRS), 11% Biden lead (Monmouth), and a pair of 7% leads (NBC/WSJ and NPR/Marist). Morning Consult is … [Read more...] about Post Protest Polling Favors Joe Biden
Donald Trump Should Forget Texas
Politics Twitter was shocked last week to see a Quinnipiac poll of Texas, at State Trump won 9 points in 2016, as a tossup, with a one point Trump lead. While many people couldn’t believe the result, it’s right in line with what the LeanTossup model has in Texas, and confirms our broader theory of the election: Biden has drawn back some amount of white non-College voters back … [Read more...] about Donald Trump Should Forget Texas