LAST UPDATED: November 24th, 2020 Introduction In this post, we’ll be presenting a preliminary analysis of the DecisionDeskHQ/Øptimus forecast for the 2020 General Election (following on a similar analysis for the 2018 midterms). It’s been a riveting year for elections and forecasts across the board, and we’re happy with the model’s performance. Here’s an outline of what … [Read more...] about 2020 DDHQ/Øptimus Forecast Model- How Well Did We Do?
I had planned to write my election wrap-up in the days following the election. But because there were so many uncalled states and races, I did not have enough information to form any thoughts. Two weeks have now passed since the election, and it has given me lots of time to look through election results and digest the outcome of several key races. So, with that said, here are … [Read more...] about Election Postmortem
This week The Harvard Data Science Review released its special edition on Predicting the 2020 Elections. This peer-reviewed academic journal that covers the science of data looked at models from The Economist, Allan Lichtman as well as DDHQ's own 2020 Election Forecast. Liberty Vittert an editor of HDSR wrote - Øptimus, in collaboration with Decision Desk HQ, presents both … [Read more...] about DDHQ 2020 Election Forecast Featured in The Harvard Data Science Review
This week, the Trump campaign announced that the candidate will make another stop in Minnesota to close out this week on Friday. This time, the stop is scheduled to be in Rochester, which has quickly moved to the left over the past couple decades as the DFL has made gains among college educated white voters. This city of Rochester has been voting much the same as the 3rd … [Read more...] about Trump to Make Stop In Increasingly Blue Rochester, MN
Do presidential debates actually matter? Yes. Is the first debate typically the most important? Yes. That’s the simple conclusion one reaches when reviewing the history and impact of the first presidential debates in each election cycle. These events often have a lasting effect on how we view these candidates both in the moment and in hindsight. They also tend to … [Read more...] about The Histories and Legacies of the First Presidential Debates