When we introduced the 2018 Election Forecasting Simulator yesterday, we included several different scenarios to play around with. Today we're taking a look at one in particular, which maximizes the expected number of Democratic victories in the House. How many seats did they leave on the table? As it turns out, not all that many. Democrats were able to pick up 40 seats in … [Read more...] about What was the Democratic ceiling in the House?
Though election season, Republican and Democratic strategists in national organizations like the NRCC, DCCC, Campaign Leadership Fund, and House Majority PAC spend considerable time planning out which races to allocate money into to maximize their side's chances of victory in as many races as possible. We took a look at our Congressional Election Model and wanted to create a … [Read more...] about Introducing the Øptimus 2018 Election Forecasting Simulator!
UPDATE: The post below has been updated to reflect the Democratic flip of CA-21 and the results of the Mississippi special election. It is now up-to-date as of November 29th. Introduction The following document presents preliminary analysis of the performance of the Øptimus House and Senate models, as well as how they compare to other forecasting models and ratings. Overall, … [Read more...] about 2018 Midterm Forecasting model analysis- How well did we do?
On the eve of Election Day, there is a high likelihood of split chamber control of Congress once the dust settles. In the past week, the national environment shifted from D+7.9 to D+7.1 while presidential approval dipped to a net negative 14 points. It is a longshot for Republicans to keep the House, though Democrats do have a very narrow path to taking the Senate. Details … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update November 5, 2018
As Election Day approaches, we took and in-depth look at our Congressional model to see if there were any districts in need of polling. We just went over 500 House polls released in 2018, and they have been distributed fairly well; there is at least one public poll in every single one of our Lean GOP, toss-up, or Lean Dem seats, and out of the 117 seats we consider any bit … [Read more...] about Poll Release: AZ01 and OH07