Do presidential debates actually matter? Yes. Is the first debate typically the most important? Yes. That’s the simple conclusion one reaches when reviewing the history and impact of the first presidential debates in each election cycle. These events often have a lasting effect on how we view these candidates both in the moment and in hindsight. They also tend to … [Read more...] about The Histories and Legacies of the First Presidential Debates
Presidential Politics, Senate Elections, And Supreme Court Hearings
The death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg is only the latest event to shake up the 2020 election. Within moments of the announcement of her passing, speculation ran rampant on how this suddenly open seat could affect the presidential race and the battle for the Senate majority. One aspect of this process that has flown under the radar, however, is the eventual … [Read more...] about Presidential Politics, Senate Elections, And Supreme Court Hearings
Trump’s Reelection Path Begins, And May End, In Florida
As we enter the post-Labor Day stretch of the presidential campaign, Joe Biden is currently ahead in all six swing states. There is one state that looms just a bit larger than the others, though, because for Donald Trump everything depends on Florida, a state the DDHQ/0ptimus forecast model moved from LEAN D to TOSS UP this week. Trump’s Special Connection With … [Read more...] about Trump’s Reelection Path Begins, And May End, In Florida
Biden Bets on A Rust Belt Path to the White House
It’s perhaps the quintessential question of the 2020 presidential election: What path should the Biden campaign take to win the 270 electoral votes needed to regain the White House? This debate has generally revolved around two options: the Rust Belt path and the Sun Belt path. The Rust Belt route consists of states that Democrats usually win, but which saw a sharp … [Read more...] about Biden Bets on A Rust Belt Path to the White House
Donald Trump and His Conventions: From Spectator to Star of the Show
Turns out you can learn quite a lot about someone by charting their history with political conventions. Last week I reviewed Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s run of DNC speeches. This week, I’m looking at Donald Trump’s RNC experiences. 1980 Ironically enough, Trump’s first convention wasn’t a Republican one. In 1980, Jimmy Carter headed north to Madison Square Garden … [Read more...] about Donald Trump and His Conventions: From Spectator to Star of the Show