A series of six polls released on Thursday show Joe Biden ahead in every state, with swings to him from Hillary Clinton's 2016 performance ranging from 3% in Florida to 11% in Wisconsin. And, fundamentally, the election is over if this happens. How likely it is to happen is an entirely separate and distinct question which is up for debate, but nobody should be in any doubt … [Read more...] about Swing State Polling Shows Trump Is Losing Badly
This week, we’ve seen a couple more hits to the Senate GOP. This time, it’s not just direct Senate polling, but also a poll of Presidential approval from Civiqs, and the findings out of Montana are disastrous for the GOP. Far from Donald Trump being the tide that lifts all GOP boats in the state,his approval numbers are now down to -7 net, 45%-52% approve-disapprove. In this … [Read more...] about Montana Senator Steve Daines Just Got A Piece Of Bad News
With the release of Q1 FEC filings this week, we’ve been able to see which campaigns have been prolific fundraisers and which ones are in some amount of trouble. On the whole, the releases are good news for Democrats trying to win the Senate in 2020, as Democrats outraised Republicans in eight races with Republican incumbents - although, three of those (Alaska, Kentucky, and … [Read more...] about Fundraising Boosts Dems’ Senate Chances
With Sunday’s release of a Wall Street Journal/NBC National poll, we now have a third data point this week showing Joe Biden with a big lead. From a 9 point lead in WSJ/NBC to CNN’s Biden +10 to Quinnipiac’s even more bullish +11, there’s a clear trend line. The LeanTossup average, which includes all polling of the Biden versus Donald Trump race, not just those three, has the … [Read more...] about Warning Signs Abound For The GOP
Pete Buttigieg has decided to end his campaign for President, signaling the true beginning of the winnowing of the field for President. Pete, the former Mayor of South Bend. Indiana has become a national figure in this campaign, even if his departure means he will not be able to perform the political miracle that winning the nomination from his position would have represented. … [Read more...] about Pete Buttigieg Has Dropped Out – What Next?