One of the ways people can analyze national polls is whether the state polls that are being released are in the same universe as the national polls - whether a national environment of a given size is being reflected in the state polling. Take the New York Times/Siena polling released last month, and you'll see the perfect example of state polls that make sense with their … [Read more...] about State Polling Provides Little Solace For The President
With the results of the Texas and Alabama Senate Primary Runoffs on Tuesday, we have entered a three week sprint to the next set of dates, and the single most consequential primary left on the board - at least in terms of general election impacts. Joe Kennedy versus Ed Markey will be fun, but in terms of who holds the Senate, Kansas Senate - Kris Kobach versus Roger Marshall - … [Read more...] about The Kansas GOP May Have A Problem With Or Without Kobach
Ah, Blue Texas, the dream of so many, you may be here. Sunday saw two polls - a University of Texas at Tyler poll showing Biden +5 and a CBS/YouGov showing Trump +1 - both showing Democrats competitive in the Lone Star State, and reignited the 18 month long debate about whether the Biden campaign should just throw everything at the core map or expand into Texas, Georgia, Iowa, … [Read more...] about Turning Texas Blue, It’s Not Just About Biden, The Senate, Or Even The House. State Legislatures Are Important Too.
Late Wednesday night, a University of Montana poll came out with results for the three federal offices and the open Governorship, and while Republicans will be happy to be favorites to win both the House seat and the Governorship on the basis of the poll, they are in danger in the Senate. By a 47-43 margin, incumbent Republican Senator Steve Daines is losing to incumbent … [Read more...] about GOP Senate Whack-A-Mole Continues
There are two Democratic primary races voting on June 23rd where the battle seems familiar but is being fought on a new paradigm. In both New York's 16th and the Kentucky Senate Primary, there is what looks to be a fairly conventional left versus establishment election happening, but in both places the primaries are more interesting than that. In both cases because the left's … [Read more...] about Progressive Challengers Build Potentially Primary Winning Coalitions In KY And NY