With Sunday’s release of a Wall Street Journal/NBC National poll, we now have a third data point this week showing Joe Biden with a big lead. From a 9 point lead in WSJ/NBC to CNN’s Biden +10 to Quinnipiac’s even more bullish +11, there’s a clear trend line. The LeanTossup average, which includes all polling of the Biden versus Donald Trump race, not just those three, has the … [Read more...] about Warning Signs Abound For The GOP
Pete Buttigieg has decided to end his campaign for President, signaling the true beginning of the winnowing of the field for President. Pete, the former Mayor of South Bend. Indiana has become a national figure in this campaign, even if his departure means he will not be able to perform the political miracle that winning the nomination from his position would have represented. … [Read more...] about Pete Buttigieg Has Dropped Out – What Next?
Saturday saw the first results come in of the Democratic Caucuses come in. While we don’t yet have complete figures, or full delegate allocations, we do have some things we learned from the results tonight. Sanders Didn’t Underperform Having final numbers would be good here, if only so we could truly estimate the size of the win versus the polls, but what is … [Read more...] about Nevada Caucuses: What We Learned
On Tuesday, five national Democratic Primary polls were released, all showing one thing - a big Bernie Sanders lead. Despite the fact Sanders is only on 29% per the LeanTossup National Average, he is in the driver’s seat of the primary, forecast for 1816 delegates per the LeanTossup model. And while the model still believes no candidate getting a majority is the likeliest … [Read more...] about Sanders Is Surging; Is It Over?
Despite the inconclusive final results of the Iowa Caucus, the train keeps rolling on, with Tuesday’s New Hampshire Primary. Bernie Sanders is the clear favorite, leading every poll released this week by at least 4%, with Monmouth showing a 24%-20% race between Sanders and Pete Buttigieg, and Emerson and Suffolk’s most recent tracking poll data showing 10%, and 6%, leads … [Read more...] about Good Bye Iowa, Hello New Hampshire: Sanders Leading, Pete Surging, Biden Fading