LAST UPDATED: November 24th, 2020 Introduction In this post, we’ll be presenting a preliminary analysis of the DecisionDeskHQ/Øptimus forecast for the 2020 General Election (following on a similar analysis for the 2018 midterms). It’s been a riveting year for elections and forecasts across the board, and we’re happy with the model’s performance. Here’s an outline of what … [Read more...] about 2020 DDHQ/Øptimus Forecast Model- How Well Did We Do?
On Tuesday, Chicago held the first round of their mayoral election. DDHQ extensively covered the election, including posting a nifty precinct-level map of results. The map features not just this week's results, but also some overlap maps of socioeconomic factors. Precinct-Level Results Lightfoot- Blue Preckwinkle- Green Daley- Red Wilson- Yellow Mendoza- … [Read more...] about Chicago Mayoral Election – Precinct analysis and looking ahead to the runoff
Last week, we unveiled the beta release of our 2018 Election Forecasting Simulator. We've now enabled Senate functionality, giving you the ability to re-allocate money in the most visible races of the year. Can you concoct a scenario where Democrats would have actually been favorites to keep the Senate, or one in which Republicans have their own red wave to counter the … [Read more...] about 2018 Election Forecasting Simulator- Senate Update
Now that Election Day is “over” (minus California and a few close races), we have a preliminary look at how our legislative model has performed. The following analysis only includes races that have been called, so it will change over the next few days. This was our first dive into public forecasting- and we’re very pleased with how it’s turned out. The House model pretty … [Read more...] about Øptimus Election Modeling Preliminary Recap
Earlier today, FiveThirtyEight released their much-anticipated Senate model. We thought it'd be interesting to see how the Øptimus model predictions compare to theirs. The numbers below are all based off of our 9/11 model update and FiveThirtyEight's Classic model as of this afternoon. The two models work in very different ways- and we won't get too far into that element … [Read more...] about Senate Model Comparison: Øptimus and FiveThirtyEight’s Predictions